The State of the Global Economy (Non-SC)

and how many times has economic growth been downgraded in the world.

It might even be worth in 5 to 10 years.

Hyper-inflation is on the way.

@lord lee,
maybe society will be heading back to the days of trading real goods, without the need for currencies then.

currency should be base on a real base within the country. basing the country's currency on theory would certain make it worthless.

if i'm very very hungry, i rather take the apple then the $1 currency. that's just reality, when comes to the decision of survival.

King. How do you compete with a country that just borrows its way out of a economic collapse without borrowing yourself?

The USA's strategy is to try and be the last man standing. Like a load of gamblers around the Black Jack table, their are some who have their budget and will leave the table when they are spent out. Their are some who will borrow some, but when thats gone they leave the table and you have the crazy ones who will borrow and borrow because to leave the table a looser is just not acceptable.

Now you said:- 'The average 10 year bond used to be 5-7% today it is at 2-3%. WE can spend another 30T and still be okay.'

King. Bond yields tend to go up when economies are growing rapidly and financial markets catch a whiff of inflation. Bond yields tend to fall when growth is weak and they fall a lot when there is a perceived threat of deflation.
Japan lost its AAA rating a decade ago and has national

Shallom, the 25% figure may indeed be in error. I didn't check the sources beyond the June 2nd issue of the Economist. If you have other figures, or a better source, please share. Argentina has been a basket case since the Gilded Age, with only a few years in that time of not being a third world country. Shame for a country that was once one of the top 10 economically in the world. (Pre-WWI).

The US being the last man standing is an intriguing thought. Provided it happens before too much longer. Be nice to offer to write a check cancelling out all our debt, and then close the bank. Of offer a nuclear baseball bat to any who decline or threaten to step in US oil deposits. Especially those countries who had the misfortune to locate themselves on top of them.

The Federal Reserve- I thought that predated the 1930's. 1913 for one benchmark. Or even further back to the panic of 1907, albeit in a different form.
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Link took me back to simcountry. But I visited the site. (and many thanks!)

If you don't mind a noobie question, why the huge disparity in rates between the economist 25%, business week 24%, and the wall street journal (also 25%).

Are the figures in tradingeconomics the ones reported by the country itself? Argentina has a history of low balling those figures, according to Argentinian economists.

yeah the information from the economics i believe are mainly just predictions of what they think will happen although i haven't read any of their articles lately. but yeah all the information on trading economics come from the each country's economic reports. that why some of the information about the us goes all the way back to 1917 and some information like India's unemployment rate is kind spotty. but i get all my economic information from that website.

i meant the economist

Nod. As I mentioned, though, you should take any source like that with a grain of salt. They are very interested parties. I've found the WSJ to be a great source of news, in many respects better then CNN, Fox, or any of the other "infotainment" industries.

M. Ney

well yeah but the difference with this website is that it isn't a journal, it just states facts, it gives no opinions.

Nod. But the facts are wrong.

how

the wall street journal does have a conservative bias, you will find it if you look hard enough, but generally eh its fine.

Phoenix king I don't care what your occupation is how long you've been doing it, or how many people think you are awesome. My post stated that our current way of evaluating the economy and currency is creating a bubble, so no matter what you do if you use stock indexes or GDP or if you believe that an economy can grow endlessly or if you believe spending on credit with no concept of repayment you are wrong.

GDP/GNP - doesn't matter it is how many exchanges not wealth creation

Indexes S&P, DOW etc - doesn't matter, it is only useful on nontangible exchanges. Nontangible exchanges doesn't hep the economy only personal finances. And before I hear guff about the importance of investment dollars most of the trade volume in the markets are of corps that have hit saturation in the market

I think some of you need to read a little Rothbard, Mises, or a bit more Austrian economics.

Phoenix King, you are very quick to put people down when they disagree with you.

The reason for this is that your limited brain can not fully calculate how others have examined the same data as you, but have reached a different conclusion. If they concluded different from you, it is because they are less, stupid, idiot, so on and on. It can never, not once in a trillion years, be that you, Phoenix King, are wrong.

Anyhow, read some Rothbard, please. It's good for you.

Really? Runaway inflation, is it? Why don't you people put your money where your mouth is? Make a prediction and place a bet.

All page numbers mentioned are from the eighteenth edition of the McMconnell Brue Flynn economics textbook.

Yeah. I'm afraid the Phoenix King is one of the few persons on here actually making economic sense. And at that all he has really done is pulled out facts on how an economic system works from an econ 101 textbook! Really rudimentary stuff that I am afraid most of you people don't seem to understand.

And as for Austrian economics, we tried that, twice! Take a guess what happened? Yeah guess who now, not once in a trillion years, could be wrong. And if you still don't know what I am talking about... does depression ring a bell. Unfettered markets are pernicious. That you should know.

King says that the U.S. government could go up to 30T in debt which is about 200% of GDP. nix001 says that our children/grandchildren will be paying of the debt. Quick question, when did the U.S. pay of the debt form WWII? The answer

idiot......lol i liked your post ceebass very interesting i will be researching more in depth some of this stuff...over the internet though....is that alright i dont have the book

You're just perpetuating the built in flaws with the system. Just because economists say something is correct it doesn't mean it to be true.

There are very steady economic principles involved in the prime mortage default swaps also, but I doubt anyone would agree that it is now okay, to package mortages now give them a AAA bond rating insure them and watch them explode.

I think you fail to see the big problem here, and I won't call you an idiot, because you are a good student, or at least a good parrot. The big problem is that everything is overvalued and everyone is overconsuming because of it is. The idea that money is worth stuff, and as long as you have money you can buy whatever stuff that money will buy you, makes sense. But what if money is worth the number on it? Because it's not. As for circular flow, I fail to see the relevance. that's just people work for a check and pay taxes, and those taxes supply

"The big problem is that everything is overvalued and everyone is overconsuming because of it is."

Flawed logic. If something is overvalued, then a correction is likely to take place. Econonomics 101. Also, if something is overvalued, then how can one overconsume? You've connected the wrong dots.

Also, I hardly see any sense in your post, Drew. Everything is everywhere, except logic which is no where. You remind me of Glenn Beck. *muddlehead*

Wow.

um... wrong.

if price is overvalued, and money is overvalued. But quanity of money is static or growing slower then this paired overvaluation, due to hidden inflation the economy doesn't know the money is missing.

Furthermore if there is extra money in the system due to excessive use of credit people lose concept of the buying power of a dollar.

In essence the market is built to correct itself, but too what scale? The correction will always happen to late, the past 20 years is an example of this.

But alas you are right, that was nonsense. I'm sure you've ran into a situation were you know the facts, but there are so many things to say you don't how to order them, or explain them in a coherent way.

The whole economy thing is simple, we use resources to distribute, market, and in many other ways waste and don't populate anything of reasonable value back. Money itself doesn't make a stab

So, essentially, you're implying that the problem is the interest rate attached to available credit is too low.

Interesting.

tough love, ha.

I would never admit to such a thing, those banks make too much as it is, and trade intangibles. Intangible exchanges are dangerous. But, ummm... not gonna answer that interest rate question. Well unless banks are deprivatized, and run by the fed then the answer is a big yes